TCN Faults 'Stranded Power' Claims, Says Generation — Not Grid — Is Nigeria's Biggest Electricity Challenge

.... Dismisses claims that the national grid can only wheel about 4,500MW, maintaining that Nigeria's verified transmission capacity currently stands at 8,700MW following sustained investments in transmission infrastructure.

.... Urges stakeholders and industry commentators to "rely on verified regulatory data when assessing challenges within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.

.... Stresses "that effective reforms must target the actual weaknesses across the power value chain rather than attributing the sector's challenges solely to the transmission network."

The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has strongly disputed claims that the country's persistent electricity shortfall is primarily caused by an inadequate transmission network, insisting that official regulatory data show the real bottleneck lies with power generation rather than the national grid.

Responding to recent claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), published in a THISDAY report, TCN said the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission's (NERC) First Quarter 2026 report contradicts assertions that over 2,500 megawatts of electricity are stranded daily because the national grid cannot evacuate available power.

According to the transmission company, the NERC report reveals that generation companies (GenCos) themselves declared an average available generation capacity of only 4,457.96MW during the first quarter of 2026, despite having an installed capacity of 13,625MW. TCN argued that this figure reflects the actual amount of electricity generators made available for dispatch, rather than any limitation imposed by the transmission network.

The company also dismissed claims that the national grid can only wheel about 4,500MW, maintaining that Nigeria's verified transmission capacity currently stands at 8,700MW following sustained investments in transmission infrastructure.

As evidence, TCN pointed to the national grid's record performance on March 4, 2025, when it successfully transmitted 5,801.84MW—the highest peak load in the country's history—alongside a record daily energy delivery of 128,370.75MWh. Similar peak performances above 5,500MW were also achieved in February and March 2025 without transmission constraints.

The company said these milestones demonstrate that the grid is capable of carrying significantly more power than is presently generated.

TCN further highlighted major investments undertaken over the past two years to strengthen the transmission network. Between January 2024 and November 2025, it commissioned 82 new power transformers, adding approximately 8,500MVA of transformation capacity nationwide.

It also cited the reconductoring of several transmission lines, including the Delta-Effurun, Sokoto-Birnin Kebbi and Ikeja West corridors, while noting that the newly commissioned Ihovbor-Benin and Ihovbor-Ajaokuta 330kV transmission lines have added over 600MW of wheeling capacity and can evacuate up to 1.5GW from the Azura and Ihovbor power plants when operating at full capacity.

While acknowledging the challenges confronting the power sector, TCN argued that the major obstacle remains low plant availability.

It noted that NERC's report recorded a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of just 32.72 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, meaning more than two-thirds of Nigeria's installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch due largely to gas shortages, mechanical faults and maintenance outages.

Several power plants, including Alaoji, Rivers, Ibom Power, Sapele Steam and Omotosho, reportedly operated at extremely low availability levels during the period, while hydropower generation also declined sharply because of seasonal low water levels and maintenance works at Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro and Dadin-Kowa dams.

The company added that if thousands of megawatts were genuinely stranded daily because of transmission constraints, NERC's own data would not have shown an overall grid load factor of 92.26 per cent, indicating that nearly all electricity declared available by GenCos was successfully evacuated.

According to TCN, five power plants recorded 100 per cent load factors, meaning every megawatt they generated was fully dispatched to the grid.

Addressing reports of grid collapses earlier this year, TCN in a statement issued and signed by its Management, clarified that NERC's preliminary findings linked the January 27, 2026 partial system collapse to inadequate reactive power support on the generation side, rather than a failure of transmission assets.

The company, however, accepted responsibility for the separate January 23 grid disturbance caused by a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station, noting that investigations traced the incident to the operation of a protective device connected to the transmission infrastructure.

On the financial challenges confronting the electricity market, TCN argued that the reported ₦2.28 trillion GenCo capacity payment shortfall is more closely tied to poor market collections than transmission limitations.

It pointed to NERC data showing electricity distribution companies (DisCos) recorded an Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) loss of 37.44 per cent, far above regulatory targets, alongside a ₦24.95 billion remittance shortfall during the first quarter of the year.

The transmission company maintained that while continued investments are required to modernise the national grid and tackle vandalism, available evidence does not support the narrative that transmission is the principal cause of Nigeria's electricity deficit.

It reaffirmed its commitment to expanding grid infrastructure through network reinforcement, substation upgrades, automation and collaboration with the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), NERC, generation companies and distribution companies to improve electricity supply nationwide.

TCN urged stakeholders and industry commentators to rely on verified regulatory data when assessing challenges within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry, stressing that effective reforms must target the actual weaknesses across the power value chain rather than attributing the sector's challenges solely to the transmission network.