NIGERIA’S INCREASING POVERTY...... By: Alex Agbo, Lagos Based Political Analyst.

"The world is becoming knowledge based. It has no place for the ill trained graduates that the neglected Nigerian educational system has thrown up"..... Alex Agbo.


There seems to be a general resignation that the war against poverty is a lost cause in Nigeria. The situation gets more dire and overwhelming to both the government and the people.

Despair is mounting on all sides. It seems a hopeless circumstance. There is an adage among the Igbos that you do not look at where you have fallen but where you tripped.

Where did we trip in a bid to develop as a nation?

1. The foolish mistake of putting natural resources above human resources.

In Nigeria, the concentration is on oil as the pillar the economy rests on. We have therefore, neglected our most potent resource which is the human capital.

Nigeria exports her oil and spends its proceeds on subsidizing the refined products for local consumption. All these are to the detriment of the development of our human capital. The world is becoming knowledge based. It has no place for the ill trained graduates that the neglected Nigerian educational system has thrown up.

2. The disconnect between the private and public sectors.

The bird has two wings. It cannot fly with just one. The wings are functionally complementary. The height a bird can fly, depends on the size of its wings. This is also true of a society. All hands must be on deck for a society to develop.

The Nigerian public and private sectors have always traded blames as to who is responsible for the underdevelopment of the country. Is this because the public sector cannot muster enough money and policy clout to move the nation forward or, because the private sector has not come up with any defined, concrete, organized, concerted and forceful program directed at charting development it's own way?

This question is very important in pointing us to the cause of the underdevelopment of Nigeria.
The public sector, particularly the government, comprises just about 1% of the Nigerian population which makes the rule for the rest of us. More than 99% are not, and may never be in government.

Government policies over time, have been on political considerations and patronage rather than economical. It therefore results in misallocation of resources, mismanagement of the lean state resources and policies that are inconsistent with the objectives of a modern society.

The private sector on its own part has not shown itself as capable of detaching itself from the government's apron strings. It has to wait for government budget to make its decision, for instance.

There are many individuals operating as silos within the society. They have the technological, strategic and financial capabilities which can be pooled to turn around the fortunes of Nigeria. There is no doubt that the impacts of Covid-19 on economies are going to be negatively disruptive.

This is why the world over, leaders are taking proactive steps to minimize the impacts on households and individuals in the coming years.

Then, a major problem is on our hands. The corona virus pandemic is upon us.
However, Africa whose economic growth, according to analysts, is going to be cut by 3 to 8% appears to have no organized, concerted and focused response plan for what is to come as an effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.

There are going to be serious consequences for this on African economies. For instance, there is going to be a disruption in the supply chains from Asia and Europe; and there is, no doubt, going to be a reduction in demand for exports from Africa which would be followed by a reduction in foreign direct investment heading for the continent.

Government approach to countering the spread of the virus in africa could be counterproductive in the long run. Travel bans, totally shutting down cities and other stiff measures will change the work patterns of many individuals, businesses and government agencies in Africa in the nearest future.

As a matter of fact, these impacts are already being felt as small businesses are groaning under the pressure of mounting costs. This is only a short term effect.

One of the major long term fall outs is the shortage of human capital resulting from closure of schools and universities.

There is also going to be a negative impact on government revenue because of reduced taxes and limited access to force. There are going to be fiscal pressures and rising debts. These would slow the growth of African economies unless something drastic such as fiscal stimulus is done.

Bringing it home, Nigeria is facing the economic challenges across all sectors. In the even that Nigeria is able to contain the virus, the economy of Nigeria still has the likelihood of losing up to six percent points in economic growth.

Being a monoculture economy, and considering the drop in the price of oil, Nigeria is on the verge of losing approximately $20 billion representing 2/3 of GDP growth in 2020. Now, suppose we are not able to contain the virus, we are likely to see a sharp drop in consumer spending on clothes, food and beverages, resulting in about $40billion.

In all of this, what should a sane society do?

The Nigerian public and private sectors are still grandstanding over who is making the most donation. Billions are flying all over the place with no visible impact. These monies could be invested in the development of small and medium scale businesses which should be nurtured from now.

There are many virtual businesses and entrepreneurs of great innovation but there are no funds. The government should look into granting loans to such businesses.

It is now time to revisit the comatose education system. Revise the syllabus and update it to accommodate the new educational need of the coming age.

Countries are now thriving on human capital. They post-covid19 economy is going to be knowledge based.

Begin to make plans for serious diversification of the economy. The advent of 5G network and the upgrade of internet of things is going to create a world where unimaginable things would be achieved. Self driven cars, for instance, would be in vogue.

So, petroleum won't be the hot cake it used to be. Nations whose economies are oil dependent would crash.

It is time to rethink!
God bless Nigeria.