THE DOG IN A FOG OF WAR: PUTIN'S PROBABLE MISCALCULATION. By Bish C. Johnson

"As an erstwhile field charter Intel operative, I am of the opinion that Vladimir Putin miscalculated his Ukraine misadventure and had thought it would be a cake walk of Emperor Casaer style." Johnson, ex-US military officer.

Magomed Tushayev, Chechen General fighting for Russia and assigned the special task of assassinating Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian  comedian who became its president after winning 70% of the votes, was killed by Ukrainian defence forces. Also annihilated were his accompanying subordinates, as well as his convoy of 56 trucks which were obliterated by Ukrainian firepower, meaning that the first to hit and cause casualties may not be the one that will have the least body bags. 

Russian Putin of course has shown a massive superpower capacity and  the elements of surprise, shock and awe, however, in this sort of warfare, a superpower show of initial superior firepower is usually shortlived as the US-Vieticom and Iraqi war case studies have shown, that brilliant conventional war tact will cave-in in the face of close quarters street battles and subversive unconventional guerilla warfare by determined and dogged citizens whom in their minds have decided to die in defense of their country as mark of national pride.

As an erstwhile field Intel operative, I am of the opinion that Vladimir Putin miscalculated his Ukraine misadventure and had thought it would be a cake walk of Emperor Casaer's style.  

It is a known fact that for over 22 years, Putin is an unrepentant diehard KGB agent who has made it abundantly clear that he is a student, admirer, and an Adolf Hitler wannabe. But here is where the war miscalculation comes in, and which makes Putin a very bad student of Hitler and History. First, it didn't end well for Hitler because the egomaniac did not live to tell the story of his atrocities. Adolf Hitler was a pariah, buried in the rubbles of war, unsung, reduced to footnotes of history, and became  an eternal study in ignominy.

Second, 2022 is a whole new and different world from Hitler's 1940s. The world is much more advanced, much more integrated, much more interconnected, and much more interdependent. There's now the internet, not the telegram.

Economies are now inter woven and tied together, so much so that a bad sneeze in New York can cause a cold tremor in Moscow. The fate of the Russian Ruble is tied to the fortunes of the American Dollar and the European Euro. With a stroke of collective pens, Russia's gas will either be stuck in Nord Stream II pipelines, made to flow back into the soils of St. Petersburg or used to heat up homes in Western Europe.

In a swift reaction, Putin and his Russian oligarchs are cut off from the global SWIFT banking system, Russian Rubles devalued, it's $600 billion foreign reserve frozen and probably be used to pay for Ukraine's war efforts and its reconstruction. In a 2022 world order, the impetuous pest can be squashed by the righteous rest. 

Indeed, modern warfare has changed. It's not just about having weapons. With the rate Ukraine soldiers are slaughtering Putin army, I am confident that US is monitoring positions of Russian soldiers and their movement and feeding Ukraine back with real time intelligence. 

Russian Soldiers have suffered heavy causalities in Ukraine; five days of fighting, with air and land bombardments of civilian areas, the Russians are yet to take full control of any city in Ukraine. Yes, their presence is being felt, but Ukrainian land is fast becoming a burial ground for Putin's soldiers with resultant outbreak of protests all over Russia including Moscow, St Petersburg etc. The citizens are already crying out to Putin to bring back home their sons and daughters.

In Putin's bubble-headed overconfidence and underestimation of Ukraine, he mistook 2022 for 1942. When it is all said and done, Vladimir Putin will not only be a pariah, he will be buried in the rubbles of war, unsung and reduced to footnotes of history and may become  an eternal study in ignominy just like Adolf Hitler.

I have no idea how long this war will last, but the longer it lasts, the more cumbersome it may become for Russia because the Ukrainians are determined and bracing up for close quarter street battles and subversive warfare. I can confidently predict that Putin's miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning of  the end of Putin's dictatorship and Putinism in Russia.

Bishop C. Johnson is a former Captain of US Army, National Security and Defense Strategist writing from Abuja.

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Magomed Tushayev, Chechen General fighting for Russia and assigned the special task of assassinating the Ukrainian President was been killed by Ukrainian defence forces. Also annihilated were his accompanying subordinates, as well as his convoy of 56 trucks which were obliterated by Ukrainian firepower, meaning that the first to hit and cause casualties may not be the one that will have the least body bags. 

Russian Putin of course has shown a massive superpower capacity and  the elements of surprise, shock and awe. But in this sort of warfare, a superpower may confidently show an ab initio superior firepower, but US-Vieticom and Iraqi war case studies have shown that brilliant conventional war tact will cave-in when close quarters street battles are introduced and subversive unconventional guerilla warfare by determined and dogged citizens whom in their minds have decided to die in defense of their country as mark of national pride takes center stage.

As an erstwhile field charter Intel operative, I am of the opinion that Vladimir Putin miscalculated his Ukraine misadventure and had thought it would be a cake walk of Emperor Casaer style.  

It is a known fact that for over 22 years, that Putin is an unrepentant diehard KGB who has made it abundantly clear that he is a student, admirer, and an Adolf Hitler wannabe. But here is where the war miscalculation comes in, and which makes Putin a very bad student of Hitler and History. First, it didn't end well for Hitler. Because the egomaniac did not live to tell the story of his atrocities.

Second, 2022 is a whole new and different world from Hitler's 1940s. The world is much more advanced, much more integrated, interconnected, and interdependent. There's now the internet, not the telegram, for crying out loud.

Economies are now inter woven and tied together, so much so that a bad sneeze in New York can cause a cold tremor in Moscow. The fate of the Russian Ruble is tied to the fortunes of the American Dollar and the European Euro. With a stroke of collective pens, Russia's gas will either be stuck in Nord Stream II pipelines or made to flow back into the soils of St. Petersburg.

In a swift reaction, Putin and his Russian oligarchs are cut off from the global SWIFT banking system. In a 2022 world order, the impetuous pest can be squashed by the righteous rest. 

Indeed, modern warfare has changed. It's not just about having weapons. With the rate Ukraine soldiers are slaughtering Putin army, I am confident that US is monitoring positions of Russian soldiers and their movement and feeding Ukraine back with real time intelligence. 

Russian Soldiers have suffered heavy causalities in Ukraine; five days of fighting, with air and land bombardments of civilian areas, the Russians are yet to take any city in Ukraine. Yes, their presence is being felt, but the land is becoming a burial ground for Putin's soldiers. That's why there's outbreak of protest in Moscow. The citizens are already crying out to Putin to bring back their sons and daughters.

In Putin's bubble-headed overconfidence and underestimation of Ukraine, he mistook 2022 for 1942. When it is all said and done, Vladimir Putin will not only be a pariah, he will be buried in the rubbles of war, unsung and unfuneraled. History may likely reduce Putin to footnotes and may become  an eternal study in ignominy.

I have no idea how long this war will last. But the longer it lasts, the cumbersome it shall become for Russia. Because the Ukrainians are determined and bracing up for close quarter battles and subversive warfare. And I am confident to predict that Putin's miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning of  the end of Putin's dictatorship and Putinism in Russia.

Bishop C. Johnson is a former Captain of US Army, National Security and Defense Strategist writing from Abuja.